Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Hopefully they'll be scheduling it accordingly, e.g.

Week 1: Group A of 2 million people get jab 1
Week 2: Group B of 2 million people get jab 1
Week 3: Group A of 2 million people get jab 2
Week 4: Group B of 2 million people get jab 2
Week 5: Group C of 2 million people get jab 1
Week 6: Group D of 2 million people get jab 1
...

Or you give more groups their 1st jabs before going back and doing their second jabs. That gives a larger group of people some immunity earlier.

It's also further complicated by having more than one vaccine available, as the other vaccines start to come into supply you can then start separate schedules going.

Belfast traffic is more quiet again, thanks to school closing.

Friend of a colleague of mine in ICU (23...!) doing better now, but of the sick person's 2 family members are in hospital on critical watch.

My son is now getting online classes (we owe the teachers a huge hamper!) and some of his teachers are trying to meme. But not very well :D

We aren't doing 2 million jabs a week at the moment so it isn't really a problem.

Week 1: 500k 1st jabs
Week 2: 750k 1st jabs
Week 3: 1m 1st jabs
Week 4: 1m 1st jabs, 500k 2nd jabs
Week 5: 1m 1st jabs, 750k 2nd jabs
Week 6: 1m 1st jabs, 1m 2nd jabs
...

The target is currently 200k/day (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9123087/Britain-records-1-162-Covid-deaths-second-worst-day-pandemic.html - "Boris promises 200,000 vaccine doses a day by next FRIDAY") and it isn't really clear that enough vaccine is available.

We also don't seem to be planning to give the two doses at the manufacturers recommended and tested interval anyway.

The idea is that very few second jabs will be given out in the big push to get the first four vulnerable groups their first jab, which they want to do by mid February.

The 12 week limit means second jabs don't become due until early March.

If the first bit overruns into March then it all goes to shit, obviously.

Actual vaccinations so far:

Week 0: 30,534 1st dose
Week 1: 620,180 1st dose
Week 2: 312,494 1st dose
Week 3: 333,224 1st dose, 21,313 2nd dose

1,296,432 have had their 1st dose. We have a long way to go if vaccination is the way out.

1.3 millions in 1 months. And only 21,313 have a second stab.

Citymapper have some interesting data of relative mobility over time by city—presumably mostly public transport usage.

Google have some interesting data too

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

We also don't seem to be planning to give the two doses at the manufacturers recommended and tested interval anyway.

This came up earlier.

https://www.lfgss.com/comments/15737384/

wifes grandparents got there first yesterday in cheam

Not sure what this means in practice, but I expect it's significant. Getting more funding from government? Good luck.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/sadiq-khan-declares-covid-emergency-in-london

To be fair, that was only from the (hospital-based) pfizer vaccine until this week. With the AZ coming in bigger volume and easier distribution we should see those significantly increase over the coming weeks.
As per the early testing numbers, the govt will no doubt fudge the figures in order to hit the target. Note Gove said they would measure on vaccine invitations sent out, so expect to see that grow much quicker than actual vaccination numbers.

fudge the figures ... Note Gove said they would measure on vaccine invitations sent out

I can only describe this measure as fucking useless.

Dad’s wife (NHS frontline) is getting the jab today which is great news as my Dad is somewhat vulnerable & with her in hospital everyday it was likely to come home at some point.
Looks like cancer care has been impacted already (he’s an outpatient at a London hospital but lives in East Anglia) as his PSA number is certainly indicating a return but they’re operating a ‘wait and see’ approach

“Sorry we missed you when we called”
And f-ing useless excuse for a human being also

Fuck, is that true? That’s absolutely nuts.

in zero other fucking walk of life would this even get it past a single round of review, how on fucking earth are they allowed to say that.

Thanks @grams @jellybaby @Greenbank

I thought the mid February target/hope for the top 4 categories was for them to just have had 1 jab each (as 2nd jabs have been stopped from this week). Just wait and see how it unfolds then.

Given we seem to have largely excelled at doing it late/wrong so far, the bar is set high.

Edit - might not have been Gove, more likely Hancock. But whichever - he snuck it in the other day. The (dodgy) rationale being that the vaccine isn't compulsory, so they will never get to 100%. Therefore they can only show everyone has been covered by being offered it, rather than taking it up.

Urgent cancer surgery in Belfast has been cancelled for some patients...

I'm not convinced that should count when there are tens of millions of people who would gladly turn up with no notice for a jab if offered.

It's like the Pfizer vaccine only lasting 8-10 days in the box it is shipped in and if you want to store it longer you need an ultracold freezer. Why are we storing it?

I agree. It's a way for them to hit targets easily though. Like with the initial testing when they counted tests sent out not actually returned and tested. Smoke and mirrors always.

Surely they would predict the uptake using polling and send out extra letters, similar to how airlines overbook flights.

The problem is if too many people turn up and the logistical nightmare it is if they do.

Friends (early 50s) got a jab last night. Friends of theirs were helping out as vaccine volunteers at the local vaccination centre. At the end of the night they had 6 doses left that would have been thrown away (since it can't be kept). Everyone was encouraged to find people they knew who were in one of the vulnerable categories and get them to come in. So the Type I diabetic friend of mine got jabbed and his wife too (different condition and she held out in case someone more needy came forward but no-one did).

With only 6 doses left at the end of a shift it doesn't sound like there's too many people not turning up, and it also sounds like the unused jabs aren't going to waste.

Just a single data point though, it may be different in different parts of the country.

At Liverpool Street I was asked what the purpose of my journey was.

Although I'm pleased to see more proactive measures in place, I was somewhat bemused being as I'm wearing grubby, hi-viz overalls and carrying a hard hat.

On traffic-anecdata, the usual 40 minute drive from digs to site, is down by 10 minutes with the queue for the Blackwall tunnel being noticeably more free-flowing.

Thats really good, I’m impressed! I’m so pleased it’s the NHS rolling out the vaccine and not Dido.