Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Lockdown ain't to stop it completely or break it's back, we're way too far gone for that. The first one was to slow the spread and make sure hospital capacity wasn't exceded, and to get a decent track and trace in place so that one things reopen then outbreaks can be targeted. Obviously our track and trace is world beatingly shit so none of that happened and everything has blown up again. Some hospitals are really struggling and things are only going to get worse, lock as much as possible down right now so that capacity isn't overwhelmed, but that's the only real reason to do it, we're not going to stop the virus with a lockdown, it's too prevalent and we can't lock down enough stuff well enough without causing more problems, essential people are essential and need essential services to back them up, it's still going to be spread around. I think all that can be done without a proper, working track and trace is a decent lockdown now to help stop hospitals going over capacity and keep on top of things until the vaccines can start to have an effect overall, I think that may mean more proper lockdowns if things start getting close to capacity again.

At the moment I'm driving where I'd previously be using public transport and I suspect that's the case for a lot of people. Mainly used for shopping, trips to the tip and visiting our bubble. I've also driven to work a few times where I'd never have done that before.

Track and Trace capacity cannot be grown exponentially, but the virus cases will.

Unless the government starts really coordinating (cannot say the NI government has been very organized around testing, though the T&T and app here were done in time and sorta OK) around areas, test the feck out of an area, isolate it, T&T it then move on to a wider areas, rinse and repeat with proper road blocks... like Wuhan w/o the human rights abuses you cannot get the T&T to work.

But then which area do you pick first? Everybody will be fighting over it.

I agree that some people are not following the rules. They haven't since the start, and won't for the foreseeable. Christmas period will have seen a huge amount of non-essential travel, I know friends that did it sadly.

there are only two things you can really do on a sunday afternoon

I see what you're saying, and this maybe true for you, but they could also be: providing childcare, helping an elderly relative / vulnerable person, going for a drive (without stopping), working in an essential job (e.g. not all doctors live near a hospital).

If I'm being extreme I'd say that going out every other day, even for safe reasons, increases the amount of cars visible on the road which will inevitably make some people feel that they can get away with driving somewhere they're not supposed to because 'everyone else is doing it'. I'm not criticising you, you're sticking to the rules, but just acknowledging that humans are humans. In no time in history has everyone done what they were supposed to (which is sometimes a good thing).

Edit: I think there's interesting / depressing parallels with the fight against climate change. For a while I fell into a pit of despair about how we were never going to make any meaningful progress, and that any small changes I was able to make was dwarfed by other people's negligence and ignorance. Eventually I came around to realise that I just had to accept that that would happen, and try wherever possible to do the best I could in my own life. Went through a similar process with social distancing etc.

Lockdown ain't to stop it completely or break it's back, we're way too far gone for that.

that may mean more proper lockdowns if things start getting close to capacity again.

Echoing @Acliff and @cozey ‘s thoughts. So the only realistic strategy now is to prepare for the long slog? Not trying to be tedious, genuinely curious about y’all’s thoughts.

Yeah - it was just an observation really, rather than a rant.

The concern I have is around why Tier 4 restrictions (and the Tier 3 that preceded) seem to not be working and what it will take to get them to work. This thread is pretty terrifying - https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1345834332183785472

We've got this new superspreadable variant, and at the same time, I think a the number of people who are nowhere near as "locked down" as they were the first time around, are up and about and doing stuff they perhaps shouldn't.

The first lockdown, the roads were dead - yet you could still do all the stuff you've listed above. We also still drove out to some nearer woods, rather than walk in the busy park at the end of the road. So our behaviour hasn't changed compared to April, but clearly a lot of others has.

So the only realistic strategy now is to prepare for the long slog? Not trying to be tedious, genuinely curious about y’all’s thoughts.

That's been the case since before the first lockdown. Hence "flatten the curve" rather than "eradicate the virus."

@edscoble @PhilDAS @Soul @stevo_com
That's interesting, thanks for your responses - so hard to know what's going on from so far away and seeing my family members take wildly varying approaches to the whole pandemic. Keep safe!

Same here.

If it helps, very people have a clue what's going on despite living in the UK so....

There needs to be a hard national lockdown with actual enforcement / consequences for breaking it but trust from the public has completely eroded and the infrastructure to manage a national lockdown has been dismantled over the past decade by the tories.

Fingers crossed that the vaccine rollout is quick enough to start seeing results.

The first lockdown, the roads were dead - yet you could still do all the stuff you've listed above. We also still drove out to some nearer woods, rather than walk in the busy park at the end of the road. So our behaviour hasn't changed compared to April, but clearly a lot of others has.

A personal difference for me is in the first lockdown I couldn't go swimming outdoors (West Reservoir mostly for me at the moment). I can at the moment and am doing so. I was going by bike or train but it's a little bit chilly at the moment and I'm not keen on trains right now so I'm driving.

There's way more stuff open at the moment. I noticed a local watch shop was open as it's a repair shop as are all the little mobile phone shops, etc. Every cafe and restaurant seems to be open for takeaways with some still having outdoor seating, public toilets are open, etc.

One I realised yesterday was all the local coffee shops are still open. I'd kind of forget that during lockdown v1 they were all closed.

Some of the coffee shops were open in first lockdown. There was confusion with the rules (obviously) and many did close, but apparently they were allowed to open (according to my local council at least)

Currently an ETA on test results of 5 days. Not really going to help the situation.

we got test results back in under 48 hours. test on friday, result on sunday. this was hackney.

We are still awaiting results from two different centres Billingsgate and Southwark from the 31st covering 4 of us.

I was tested on Friday and still no result, this was in Gloucester.

Just got the call, my sister’s father in law died an hour ago after a few days of unconsciousness in hospital.

Sorry to hear about your loss, James.

that's really bad. i hope you both get them back soon.
our kids had to get them to go back to school but then school was cancelled before they came back. i haven't bothered asking any of the other parents if/when they got them back.

Edit: ... and i'm very sorry to hear about your loss, dancing james

My condolences, James.

Condolences buddy :-(

Cheers y’all

Am simultaneously sad and furious. The temptation to find any of the covidiots on the forum and shout at them is high but won’t change what has happened.

Sorry James. That’s fucking shit man.