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Would two weeks of suspended animation be enough
Probably not, no. People testing positive isn't a problem as such. People who get sick enough to need hospital care which there isn't capacity for are. It takes a couple of weeks from exposure to hospitalisation and then another 2 weeks or more for people to get better or not. A lockdown needs to last long enough for people to stop being admitted and those that were infected on lockdown-1 to go through the system. So you probably need 4 weeks or longer.
I think in your 'full-blown lockdown' food shops are shut. So you are asking people to go out and buy 4+ weeks food all at the same time. The food retailers can't supply that.
jellybaby-
People who get sick enough to need hospital care which there isn't capacity for are. It takes a couple of weeks from exposure to hospitalisation and then another 2 weeks or more for people to get better or not.
Haven’t had morning coffee so might be missing something, but wouldn’t the people who need hospital care need it anyway? We wouldn’t have more hospital capacity on 15 March whether or not we had a lockdown in place. Ideally, we would have massively decreasing hospitalisations from 16 March with a serious 2 week lockdown.
I left out buying food, which would be like in LD1, I agree it’s unreasonable to presume everyone (and shops) can stock up multiple weeks of food.
Adhiero
Questions - would a pre-scheduled, full-blown national lockdown be enough to decisively beat covid? If so, what would be the minimum duration for it to have the necessary effect?
From what I’m seeing, the current course isn’t sustainable, full stop. If the mass vaccination programme doesn’t bring the contagion speed down, then we have a shot at maaaybe one more total lockdown with good voluntary compliance in the near future. If that becomes the case, the Govt should plan to absolutely maximise its impact. For that to happen, they need to give people a chance to prepare beforehand, and they should also use all the media at their disposal to hammer home the importance of everyone following through this one time.
If 2 weeks are enough to break covid, the plan could be something like:
5-12 Jan- Govt begins an all-fronts campaign highlighting need for one singular Big Lockdown; get the unions, big industry, private mass media, regional govts, political parties to agree and actively promote the Big Lockdown. Eases restrictions on importers to allow quick stockpiling as some people will unavoidably panic buy.
12 Jan- PM/Parliament announces clearly worded law imposing Big National Lockdown from midnight 01 to 05:00am 16 March for the entire UK; no meeting between households except for carers; enforced quarantine for all travellers into UK from 10 Feb to 01 March and 16 April to 01 July, no-exceptions; specialised isolation areas for shipping crews temporarily docking in the UK; everything except genuinely essential services and WFH closed; nationwide Govt paid furlough; cloth nose and mouth coverings mandatory in public; 30 minutes exercise outside once per day within .5km radius of home; mass vaccination to continue; specialised containment areas for refugee arrivals; criminal charges, heavy income-balanced fines and police-enforced quarantine for flagrant or repeat offenders; priority visa decisions for all medical personnel immigrating into UK; military used to transport personnel and equipment across the country in rapid response to outbreaks.
Would two weeks of suspended animation be enough so that on the 16th day we could go down to tier 2 or even 1, and keep it there?
Edit- this was surprisingly cathartic, even as a die hard believer in democracy and personal liberty.