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I'd agree, I think another March-style lockdown will be a lot less effective than the first unless properly enforced, there was a much larger level of uncertainty and fear at the time which led to people going well above and beyond the restrictions, on a personal level as-well as businesses that shut even when the were not required to (albeit temporarily)
Also the weather was an important point - it's quite easy to see friends/family outside in a sunny spring, now the option would be essentially no social life, unless you want to freeze your tits off, or do it under-the-radar inside a warm private home, I know what option a lot of people would choose (and understandably so, 60+ people are not going outside in -1c temps)
Add to that the increased transmissibility of the new variant, general discontent and lack of faith with this governments approach, mixed messaging and outright corruption we seem to be heading towards a perfect storm - I don't think even a national lockdown ala spring will have the desired effect and the vaccinations are still too far off to catch up. Think the next few months are gonna be a pretty bumpy ride to say the least...
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roadwarrior
First lockdown was very effective.
A similar lockdown would be effective though compliance might be awful compared to the first one.