with an internal width of 22mm, is it likely for the tire to balloon any bigger than with the 21mm internal width wheel?
Yes
I wouldn't have thought an extra 1mm of internal width would've made that much difference. Do you think it would be enough to overcome the 2/3mm clearance either side of the tire?
It will reduce it even further below the 4mm which is considered safe, but not to zero.
@miloas started
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Yes