Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Surely that’s too broad a question.
I’d also suggest it’s perhaps the wrong question. Given the new variant supposedly increases R by .7

Lock the place down for 10 weeks and go on a massive vaccination program like a war effort. The numbers aren't that extreme even if the govt is very generous.

£500 pw for every adult - 45M * £5k = £225B
£100 pw for every child under 12 - 10M * £1k = £10B
£150 pw for every child under 18 - 9M * £1.5k = £13.5B

£248.5B for a massive stimulus package that could get us to a 40%ish immunised society with 90%+ of the vulnerable and key workers immunised.

The have already spent £280B and we're not much closer to the finish line IMO

Yes - I was just looking at this, Japan specifically.

I wonder how you separate efficacy of social restrictions from other measures that are more baked in to their cultures, i.e. high levels of hygiene, relative homogeneity etc.

I think originally not closing schools was about keeping the economy going - parents who have to look after kids all day can't/find it hard to work - and not upsetting Tory voters by putting them in that situation.

I don't think it was ever about science or public health. This government has been almost weirdly obsessed with keeping them open and now we're seeing the cost of that.

I agree with most of that but I think closing schools also has a very big impact on long term life opportunities especially if close to exams.

Missing 6 months of school could easily cause you to drop a grade or two in key subjects like Maths and English where not having the magic pass (old C at GCSE?) really holds you back for the rest of your career.

Also looking after secondary school kids while working isn't all that tricky. Primary is a problem.

Big issue with subsequent lockdowns of greater severity is that huge swathes of the country don’t give a fuck anymore, and the fear inducing rhetoric of March was a one trick pony.

Not sure this is true. Hackney hasn't exactly been a bastion of rule following and social distancing but I've actually been surprised how much people are staying at home and not mixing. Our road was dead on NYE apart from everyone setting of fireworks from their gardens at midnight and when I speak to people they seem to realise how bad it is and are bunkering down.

The Met said about London more widely on NYE that they were expecting to have to deal with more violations than they did.

Surely that’s too broad a question.

It isn't.

I’d also suggest it’s perhaps the wrong question.

I don't think so. I'm interested in what seems to continually drives transmission despite our efforts to control it. Non compliance with stay at home orders - being quite visible - might appear an obvious answer. I've no idea if it's just 'noise' (e.g. 99% compliance, 1% obvious, visible non compliance) or more significant though.

As above, you could spunk a lot of cash on paying people to be compliant, or taking stronger measures against noncompliance, but you might find out you are fiddling with the fringes and it has no significant impact on transmission.

(I understand that the example above is literally paying the population to stay at home - I'm not sure that's exactly what was meant by Jackc, might have been more money for enforcement or tax breaks for home working etc)

The pandemic is definitely having a big impact on a lot of people's long term life opportunities - about 1000 a day at the moment aren't going to have any at all unfortunately. To me this outweighs the issues above - should we sacrifice the lives of older people so young people have better long term life opportunities?

Educationally it is possible to make changes to allow for that, the problem is (again, sorry for sounding like a stuck record) that our incompetent government aren't capable of effectively delivering it and are ideologically opposed to modern educational techniques which actively improve opportunities, because they think education peaked in the 1950s. I used to work on a programme that raised GCSE attainment by 2.5 grades on average for pupils who took part - it was scrapped by Jeremy Hunt despite the possible ROI being incredible.

I agree with @Señor_Bear that something like this is the answer:

Lock the place down for 10 weeks and go on a massive vaccination program like a war effort.

I reckon that would be better for the economy in the long term too. But this would take decisive leadership and we don't have that.

should we sacrifice the lives of older people so young people have better long term life opportunities?

That wasn't what I was suggesting, just that keeping schools open is about more than allowing parents to work.

I agree with @Señor_Bear that something like this is the answer:

Lock the place down for 10 weeks and go on a massive vaccination program like a war effort.

I have no confidence we have enough vaccine available to reach the 20m priority people in 10 weeks or that with the current rate of spread and hospitalisation levels that would be enough anyway.

We need to be planning measures that can last for 6 months.

I don’t think non compliance and risk have a direct correlation.

No I know you weren't suggesting that, but that's the dilemma isn't it? How can it be worth it (now we know that the kiddies are spreading it)?

I agree - I don't think 10 weeks is enough, needs to be longer.

We need to be planning measures that can last for 6 months.

If only we didn't have a government with the long term vision of a daddy long legs.

.25tn that would almost all feed straight back into circulation too

Government is business not service now. This discussion suggests that any government would prioritise care, legacy etc over personal advancement. Surely even the most globally debilitating crisis is less impactful for those who are mis managing it if their financial circumstances are shored up or it proves a useful smokescreen for shady, nepotistic dealings?

There’s profit to be made... by a couple dozen elites. That’s it. That’s where the decision making sits.

Assuming tier 5 is inevitable, and it includes education, what else should stop?

Professional sport perhaps? The numbers of individuals involved is small but there seem to be lots of positive tests so there is spread there.

Online shopping (delivered and click and collect) of non essentials? Reduce the number of people in warehouses etc.

What else wasn't allowed in April but is now?

Exactly. It's been proven on umpteen occasions that trickle down is a nonsense. You have to fund from the bottom up.

I mean really, where the fuck was the fairness in a stamp-duty holiday or eat-out-to-help-out?

Construction trades?

10 weeks of lockdown should also reduce normal hospital load, seasonal flu, A&E entries etc.

Also will allow track and trace to be refined, and easier to manage when there are hardly anywhere to mingle.
Not that people have been using it religiously.

Tories: "The immutable power of the Free Market will save us all!"

Narrator's voice - it didn't.

Estate agents, valuers.

I work in the property market, but always thought that having estate agents/valuers entering multiple homes on a day by day basis seems a fairly high risk.

Especially given the personalities of the estate agents I know, who generally tend to be of the ‘fuck the rules, I’m invincible’ types.

Nurseries remain open too

Are you suggesting it's a great way to get rid of estate agents? Is there anyway they can go in two with landlords?

surely a lot of non-compliance is directly traceable to cunty cummings and his consequence free to-ings and fro-ings?

Can’t do without estate agents and landlords.
No suitable alternatives, unless it goes 100% state housing. That’s unlikely to go very well....

unless it goes 100% state housing

Royalty thread >>>