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The thing I've always wondered is how much of the VAT refunded goods are declared for whatever duty and local VAT is due when imported at the other end.
Good question, I’ve no idea but I’m sure there have been studies on it. Lots of countries have tax exemptions on importation of personal items by travellers (clothes, a bike, a laptop...), so I’d expect those countries focus on large undeclared imports meant for re-sale. In those cases, it’s in the interest of both the country exporting and the country receiving the goods to identify who’s evading their taxes. That’s one of the reasons the UK has/had a requirement that clothes purchased here be for the traveller’s personal use. (Edit-to qualify for tax refund).
I think it boils down to making the UK a more attractive tourism destination. We all pay VAT initially and some things for tourists are tax-refundable, and not every tourist goes thru the process of getting a refund. It makes buying stuff in the UK a more attractive deal, businesses get more tourist £, and the Govt. is still getting part of that money via taxes in businesses.