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You are well beyond DIY now :) Could you not cut a square mortice and tenon instead. I know it's a cheat too but you could epoxy in a 10mm bolt and then use repair care + wedges to level and fill it. Only you would know if you decorate it properly. Get the shoulders perfect on a mortice there and you would have a very strong joint. I suppose it could get fallen or lent on heavily though.
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When face with similar bannister issues our builder made a solid “wall” out of mdf and wood and topped it with some spare bathroom floor tiles, he inlaid a couple of small shelves with some arty up lights and good to go. Was a much cheaper and quicker fix than fixing bannisters in, we had a longer run to do than yours
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The way to do it is to cut the newels and then affix a new part newel to the top of them, but to do this you need to work out how to rout a perfectly centred 40mm hole in the middle of a newel post stump that is in situ
Rather than a peg / hole situation could you scarf it? Would give you a bigger faying surface and you could put a bolt through it for strength.
The stairs in my place are turning into a right saga. Changing the newel posts on the half landing returns is impossible because they are integral pieces of the construction and tied-in on 3 sides. The way to do it is to cut the newels and then affix a new part newel to the top of them, but to do this you need to work out how to rout a perfectly centred 40mm hole in the middle of a newel post stump that is in situ. It's really not easy. Job for next weekend.
Left it as a death trap for the decorator.
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