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Pinch it to form a narrower U shape.
Lots of small and even tweaks around the full length of the mudguard is what you're aiming for. Pinching carefully by hand would probably work fine, alternatively some kind of set up with a vice/clamp might give you more controlled results (this might be be overthinking it though)
I can't quite work out how it works but it does. I resized 650b guards to fit 26x2", fairly straight forward and doesn't take much adjustment of the cross-section to change the radius the correct amount.