I can't quite work out how it works but it does. I resized 650b guards to fit 26x2", fairly straight forward and doesn't take much adjustment of the cross-section to change the radius the correct amount.
Pushing the cross section in, increases the side profile radius.
I've been fucking around with different sets all this time. Don't know if repeat adjusts will cause issues. But I fit my 650/50mm perfectly around my 700/38 tyres.
https://velo-orange.blogspot.com/2017/01/re-radiusing-fenders.html?m=1
Why did I not think of this before... That's my evening sorted.