EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I have no idea of the accuracy of this

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Plausibly very accurate. But even if not, Johnson is such a fucking wanker!

Edit: And to add, I feel we are all witnessing Johnson’s insecurity, when faced with a professional, composed figure like Barnier.

I assume Johnson thinks that eternal glory comes with getting a good result from NO DEAL. It’s very high risk.

I think one of the genuine problems is that Brexit campaigns often use anger/fear and that anger/fear cannot be put back in the box easily.

And many people trying to be more emotionally composed are just giving up trying to gently explain what's going on with angry Cons voting Brexiters reacting like 12 year olds throwing a tantrum and "but it's all the fault of eu/immigrants..." never any responsibility for what they voted for, as they literally incapable or made so by the manufactured anger.

Feels like we end up picking the pieces.

Would the UK remain a nuclear power once Scottish Indy happens? Out of the G7, losing our permanent security council seat, and with our financial services revenue being enjoyed in Frankfurt and Amsterdam we might be rather easier to manage as an EU satellite state.

fucking wanker

Make up your mind. :)

I wouldn't be so sure of Scottish Indy.. Mr and Mrs Murrell are hanging by a thread at the moment.

and with our financial services revenue being enjoyed in Frankfurt and
Amsterdam

This won't happen to a great extent. London has been a global financial centre for eons and that will continue to be the case post-Brexit. Some revenue will leave but the vast majority of the financial services sector and it's ancillary structures (accounting, law, consulting, etc) will continue to be, for better or worse, a large part of the UK economy. You're just not going to see investment banks, hedge funds, investment management firms, etc. up sticks and move their entire operation to mainland Europe en-masse. Some smaller firms will do so but they will be the exception rather than the norm.

You're just not going to see investment banks, hedge funds, investment management firms, etc. up sticks and move their entire operation to mainland Europe en-masse

You will. They've already been doing it and will continute to do so.

Good question. It’s my understanding that at least some of the UK nukes are kept at a US naval base on their east coast. IIRC, they’re basically a shared stockpile and random numbers are drawn to assign X missile to either country. Would the US want to keep British subs at sea armed with Trident, to the point of ponying up some cash? Given that they’re each other’s closest military ally, I’d expect so.

Edit- but again, like everything big countries invest in, those dollars would come with even more strings.

The only way they're staying as they are in the UK would be through financial deregulation, and we've all seen how well that works out.

I lold.

The most logical explanation for Brexit is to allow the UK economy to continue to act as the Worlds best money laundering and off-shore tax avoidance centre.
EU legislation will hinder these dubious activities.

Don't forget the FREEPORTS.

(Do they really imagine those will save them from the consequences of 'no deal' (that political fiction)?)

We are, effectively, a US nuclear outpost- if we stop being able to base the boats at Faslane the US may as well do it all themselves. We will continue to pay them for strike aircraft etc etc, so plenty of money flowing into their defence contractors from the UK still.

Of course Scottish Indy is very much not assured, but it’s solidly polling in the majority now, and they’d attract a good number of economic migrants I suspect if they offered citizenship in return for residence. One of these migrants would likely be me, keen to regain the rights I lose at the end of the year, and whilst my tax contributions are small in the scheme of things if my thinking is shared by others it could be significant overall.

we might be rather easier to manage as an EU satellite state.

That’s one of my suspected, but certainly not wishes for, outcomes. Whether by the EU or US, the UK seems to be setting itself up for reverse colonisation.

This is a good article, much though it's all hapless analysis long after the fact:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/09/brexit-grassroots-movement-elitist-takeover-2016-referendum

if we stop being able to base the boats at Faslane the US may as well do it all themselves.

Someone here might have more current info than me, but the US has 14 ballistic missile subs; the UK has 4. The UK might scrap them to make a point or sell them to make a profit, but the US would definitely prefer if they stayed operational and in support of joint strategic missions.

Take investment management firms as an example. Most of them have set up umbrella companies in Dublin and/or Luxembourg to service European clients whom for whatever reason cannot legally contract with a non-EU entity. Aside from that it's pretty much BAU. Look maybe I'm blinkered and totally wrong, but I just cannot see the demise of London as one of the top two global financial centres because of Brexit.

But in doing so (I believe, someone who knows can correct me) they've moved some / all of the capital out of the UK to that other country.
The UK can no longer get revenue from taxing it, or make decisions on the rules it has to abide by.

The tax paid will be on profit and how much this is will be determined by the transfer pricing scheme the investment manager operates.
The Basel 3/4 regulations won't change for banks in the UK in the medium term (nor Solvency 2 regulations for insurers).

The profits will be generated in EU bases though if the services need EU access?

Sounds to me the UK will still lose tax revenue.

The dodgy dealings of the city of London helping with moving stolen dictator money/ offshore UK tax havens won't really change (for now)

How much tax and other revenue that CoL work brings to the UK I really don't know.

I think other EU members are much more attuned to corporate tax avoidance than the UK...

I just think that BJ doesn't like Europeans, but quite happy for the UK to be bought out by foreign investment from elsewhere and idiots that voted leave just can't see it..

watching New Elizabethans last night hosted by Andrew Marr, which covered the rhetoric from both Enoch Powell and Tony Benn during the 'should we stay in the common market' referendum of 1975 was epic timing.

Well I'm not going to reward this idiocy by paying money for our new massive surplus of fish. Although maybe I won't have a choice if the turnip factories can't cope with demand.

Only thing that makes sense to me.

The whole criticism about automatic fines for the breaking level playing fields rules is understandable (instant fines are maybe a bit much).

In the end the UK exports high quality items and food, the EU manufacturers won't ditch their standards on some goods to dump them in GB (not worth it as many other parts of the world make cheap low standard goods) so all it does to let standards slide is low quality imports from around the world which will harm UK manufacturing for local consumption.

All that "we don't like the EU telling us what to do" is a simple story, this is a longer game which won't end to well for many sectors.

If Boris wanted to find a solution the Eu will help him sell it, they don't need instability at their doorstep.