EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I'll take that as a complement but can't be too smug, Scotland and the North East specifically isn't exactly perfect. Still too much poverty and inequality, not sure that bloody brexit is going to do anything to improve that situation :(

I'd be (shamelessly) an economic migrant (if that's the correct term), keen to pave the way for EU citizenship when Scotland becomes independent. I wonder how much tax revenue would migrate up north of the border when Scots Indy starts looking close?

None of us are going to escape it. Hopefully we will all use the time for quiet contemplation and helping our neighbours.

How are there’s foot left after it been shot are multiple times?

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"Never believe anything until it's been officially denied" (Claud Cockburn)

So, quite hopeful.

I very much hope that a deal will be struck this weekend, but it would be really interesting to see the future of internal EU politics if France veto'd a deal due to national fishing interests and fucked over the rest of the bloc (yes, I know the UK would be more fucked).

By vetoing the deal, does that mean they cannot fish in UK water as opposite to be given a tiny pittance of UK water under a deal? (Which tbh is pretty shit as we barely have enough fishing industry to compensate).

Then again, it mean fish and mammals will thrive either way, weirdly a positive outcome.

A French politician already visited coastal towns saying "There will be changes, but we will be here for you".

So that may be a preparation? Either way, total customs mess, lorry parks in Kent and no financial passporting.

Also, the UK gets double the quotas (9% to 18%, I know the UK got done a bit ages ago, not sure why, perhaps the English gov didn't care much in 1975) then I hear the boats to fish the grounds are not there.

But sure, if all your Brexit is based on is "LIFE IS UNFAIR" and "ITS THE EU!!!" that feeling rarely leads to mature solutions, like

Interesting call on James O'brien's LBC show. Haulage expert says rather than lorry queues, European haulage companies simply won't bother delivering to the UK

LBC (@LBC) Tweeted:
'There were certain people saying they'd rather eat grass than be in Europe. Well, that opportunity may very soon come their way.'

This international freight forwarding company owner warns that Brexit is set to have a devastating impact on his industry.

@mrjamesob https://t.co/oq1KMEeWck https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1334437937904279558?s=20

Watching an LBC clip on Twitter is my idea of hell (not a dig at you), so apologies if I'm responding without having "read the article", but: if there's money to be made shipping to the UK, they'll have people sitting in queues, surely? It may mean shipping will cost more to get things between the EU and Britain, but the idea that companies will just forgo business doesn't really make sense to me.

By vetoing the deal, does that mean they cannot fish in UK water as opposite to be given a tiny pittance of UK water under a deal?

That's my understanding. WTO rules mean the UK gets back its territorial fishing rights. Unfortunately that's not really an industry that's going to make up for everything else lost.

If I was still teaching political science I'd use this in a game theory lesson and get my Nash equilibrium on.

Well he's saying the drivers won't get paid if they're sitting in queues, as they're paid by the KM.

There's lots of talk of a deal, but this deal is total shit and does nothing for 80% of the economy, services. Deal or no deal we're still leaving the customs union so supply chains are fucked, food on the shelves and just in time manufacturing etc.

I still think people hear deal and think that means nothings changing.

The fishermen are likely to be fucked what ever the outcome, deal and they don't get their quotas back (which they wouldn't be able to handle anyway) or no deal and they won't be able to sell anything into the EU without a 40% tariff. Its not like we eat any fish that hasn't been turned into fish and chips.

Watching an LBC clip on Twitter is my idea of hell (not a dig at you), so apologies if I'm responding without having "read the article", but: if there's money to be made shipping to the UK, they'll have people sitting in queues, surely? It may mean shipping will cost more to get things between the EU and Britain, but the idea that companies will just forgo business doesn't really make sense to me.

His point is (and I've not seen the clip, but read around this subject to a degree) is that at the moment the UK is just another European country, no more and no less hard/expensive to get too, apart maybe from the stow-away situation that the Daily Mail has done so much to stoke.

After the end of the year the challenge (basically, expense) of getting into and out of the UK is much, much higher - and you can make the same money you made beforehand by just choosing to take a load to Bruges rather than Bath.

Ultimately this will be resolved of course - via inflationary pressure driven by scarcity of hauliers. We the consumer will just pay more for stuff and the lorries will deliver it.

But, there's going to be an adjustment period before the amount we're willing to pay equals what the hauliers are willing to accept in order to sit in a lorry park in Kent for four days.

Given (as has been said) that these guys are paid by the Km not the hour then the cost of UK kilometres is going to increase markedly I would think.

There's lots of talk of a deal, but this deal is total shit and does nothing for 80% of the economy, services.

Absolutely, but it's not a zero-sum game. Let's hope the damage that will be done is mitigated as much as possible.

A lot of hardcore remainers seem to think they'll be fine regardless of outcomes and therefore are hoping for the hardest and most traumatic of exits to "teach the Brexiters a lesson." Fuck those guys.

There's lots of talk of a deal, but this deal is total shit and does nothing for 80% of the economy, services. Deal or no deal we're still leaving the customs union so supply chains are fucked, food on the shelves and just in time manufacturing etc.

I still think people hear deal and think that means nothings changing.

The fishermen are likely to be fucked what ever the outcome, deal and they don't get their quotas back (which they wouldn't be able to handle anyway) or no deal and they won't be able to sell anything into the EU without a 40% tariff. Its not like we eat any fish that hasn't been turned into fish and chips.

I think for the EU it's all about LPF, the fish thing will be traded away, but what is crucial for them is LPF with an enforcement mechanism. Without that enforcement mechanism, and the ratchet that ties our standards to theirs then (in the case of the EU) no-deal really is better than a bad deal as they can use the remedies available within the WTO to put tariffs on UK goods that are produced via lower environmental and labour standards.

A lot of hardcore remainers seem to think they'll be fine regardless of outcomes and therefore are hoping for the hardest and most traumatic of exits to "teach the Brexiters a lesson." Fuck those guys.

We may end up their anyway, but I 100% agree that we should do everything we can to get some sort of deal as it will be those closest to the edge who will bear the brunt of the costs of Brexit.

Yeah, no disagreement from me there. As I said, prices will go up - shipping won't stop if there's profit to be made.

it will be those closest to the edge who will bear the brunt of the costs of Brexit.

Exactly.

WTO does not government fishing rights.

It's... complicated btw international fishing rights.

The idea the UK can just "take it back" after selling access seems unlikely to me though.

Supermarkets already said they may pull their food processing plants out of Northern Ireland.

That's just one trip here and back to GB. Occasionally one way like milk for cheese...but if cheese goes to be sold here it's not.

It's not worth it if profit margins are small and products are perishable.

I'd expect we will see more and more GB items coming from EU via Ireland.

Indeed. The law of the sea, started by one of your people - Grotius. But my understanding remains that if we exit the agreement and return to a WTO relationship, existing agreements with the EU around fishing quotas will also be nullified. It's not an issue of "taking it back" but reverting to existing international norms/laws.

But that's just my understanding. I'm sure there's a maratime lawyer in here.

You can see something similar with the Rose bikes situation. They stopped selling bikes to the UK just because of the hassle of switching brake levers. They had increased demand in markets
that they could sell directly to without the extra cost.
A lot of smaller businesses will probably be in a similar situation with increased cost. I read
something about the flower and plant business being affected by this.
The crazy thing is that even after the pound crash in 2008 and 2016 it was still cheaper to order most stuff from European shops but this will probably end soon.

The other thing in that is that we are dropping the EU anti-dumping duties on bikes from China and similar economies, which mean that Rose et al will be competing against vendors who suddenly have a price that is half what is was to the consumer.

Better you save your energy for the rationing.

Will that be for directly shipped from China or any brand made in China?