Yeah - I'm sure it'll be 2. There'll be a few tier 3 up north for another couple of weeks before the Christmas bacchanalia commences but they'll want to keep most places open.
Using the gov post code website which gives you information about how your local area is doing, my old postcode in Bethnal Green seems much worse than my current address in Levenshulme, S. Manchester. I still reckon London will be 2 and Manchester 3 though.
What tier do we think London will be in come the 3rd of December?