Investment & Investing

That's a strange take they have on how probability works.

So we getting negative interest rates tomorrow?

That's a strange take they have on how probability works.

FiveThirtyEight? How so?

The article, not the analysts.

If I tell you that a dice roll has a probability of 67% of being above 4, and then roll a 2, is doesn't make me wrong.

Similarly with polls, and 538's analysis.

So we getting negative interest rates tomorrow?

No, the BoE has just plumped up £150bn to keep interest rates at 0.1

The article, not the analysts.

If I tell you that a dice roll has a probability of 67% of being above 4, and then roll a 2, is doesn't make me wrong.

Similarly with polls, and 538's analysis.

Ah, yes. I'd assumed that they'd be commenting on the polling methods. Or, to use the dice analogy, that it turned out the dice wasn't evenly weighted and so the assumptions were incorrect leading to poor predictions.
But no, they just reel off the list of polls and then leave it there.

When do we get paid?

Should be a £2.5k a head stimulus cheque right?

That's would make sense... instead they pump it to the bank system, and keep there fingers crossed it trickles down.. *spoiler it doesn't.

S&S ISA, which providers should I be looking at for good deals? My current cash ISA offers a paltry 0.05% interest so I have decided it's time to look elsewhere. Hargreaves Lansdown are on the list already but who else should I consider?

Vanguard? Limited range of funds but that's not necessarily a bad thing

Nutmeg.

Interactive Investor is £10 a month I think so quite a bit cheaper than the others IIRC if you want hands-off fund purchasing.

Clarifying: By hands off I mean, they don't do it for you.

I've found Halifax good so far. Quite low trading fees for shares/etf on share builder plan, which is good for regular top ups.

Thanks all, will look into those options.

Halifax

Is where my cash ISA is atm so I guess would be the easiest transfer, will take a look at their offering compared to the others.

I use Nutmeg which are great for hands-off, transfer some money and leave them to it. There's probably better options if you want to invest more time.

What sort of return are you guys getting on your S&S ISAs at the moment?

depends when you invest doesn't it. mine's up 25% overall, but that's with drip feeding it every pay day over a few years, and a few withdrawals, no one large sum invested. before you look for gains, ask yourself how much volatility (or ups and downs) you can stomach.

they also offer a lower-fee model portfolio variant, rather than the fully managed ones. also, ethical portfolios...

7% p.a. over the past few years. Vanguard is 8.3% or something.
[Past performance is no indication of future blah]

ethical portfolios

This appeals to me about Nutmeg.

Just trying to compare to some other providers and everyone seems to have invented their own pricing model making it hard to compare :(

I have heard from a reliable source that Vanguard fees are so low they don't actually make money from accounts with less than £30k in them. They are the lowest in the business. They are not that worried about ethics though. Tobacco companies, Arms manufacturers etc. tend to be in the mix.

They are considering some funds which exclude these less savoury elements but they won't be as profitable.

25% with vanguard, based on a bulk deposit just over 3 years ago and a bit of moving it around the various funds (and in/out of cash) on the platform. Their lifestrategy funds are pretty good if you just leave it there.

Happy with anything > 5% PA TBH

Without risk 5% pa is a dream right now. That would attract a lot of investment.

5% with risk should be fairly easy to achieve averaged out over more than 5 years. I still can't take the plunge with companies like Vanguard or Fidelity despite the fact that they have far outperformed my 'safe' investments.