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You're right, it's impossible to know. But IMO the rigidity of the current furlough system is counterproductive and forces people to be in suspended animation, it gives a false sense of security of things eventually going back to the way they were and for a significant number of jobs that simply won't be the case.
ElGonzo
Which jobs won't be viable though and how does anyone know at this stage? Many areas are essentially mothballed until we come out of this eg entertainment/leisure/hospitality but will return as a whole (even if individual businesses can't make it through). In retail, many will be able to carry on the online side on fewer staff and then will need furloughed staff to be in place when they can safely reopen.
Making everyone unemployed on a UBI then having to staff up again will take far longer to recover.