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That's a very good comparison, but I would hope that Carthy is much closer with the stakes being so much higher and him clearly being in the form of his life. I would also expect Roglic to be more fatigued after 5 plus weeks of grand tours with winning classics in between. My guess is that JVs analysis is an attempt to deflect pressure from Carthy whilst hoping for a closer result.
ColinTheBald
andyp
The closest comparison in recent seasons, in terms of length and parcours, to tomorrow's TT is the Giro stage last year to San Marino, a 34.8 km TT with an uphill finish.
Roglic won, Carthy was 8th 1' 30" down and Carapaz was 11th 1' 55" down.