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The closest comparison in recent seasons, in terms of length and parcours, to tomorrow's TT is the Giro stage last year to San Marino, a 34.8 km TT with an uphill finish.
Roglic won, Carthy was 8th 1' 30" down and Carapaz was 11th 1' 55" down.
andyp-
That's a very good comparison, but I would hope that Carthy is much closer with the stakes being so much higher and him clearly being in the form of his life. I would also expect Roglic to be more fatigued after 5 plus weeks of grand tours with winning classics in between. My guess is that JVs analysis is an attempt to deflect pressure from Carthy whilst hoping for a closer result.
amey
ColinTheBald
An interesting rhetorical question is 'how well does Hugh Carthy tt?'. It is quite possible that he doesn't know himself, as it isn't a discipline he has had to go all-out at. Taking an educated guess of worse than Roglic, better than Carapaz and much better than Martin, the last mountain stage could be a great showdown. I don't think the Vuelta is over quite yet, particularly considering the risk of Roglic burning out in the 3rd week after the season he has had.
Probably just wishful thinking, but about to check the odds on Carthy.