• 120k predicted deaths at 0.25% CFR would mean 48 million people getting it

    Where are you getting your numbers from?

    I'd say it's impractical for the virus to spread to 48 million people in a short period time. The virus isn't that contagious and many/most people are doing a half-decent job staying away from others, so its growth rate will slow down long before it reaches a majority of the population.

  • CFR from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviruĀ­s/coronavirus-death-rate/

    I can't find 0.25% CFR on there - the nearest is the 0.28% population fatality rate for NYC, which is a very different thing. The other numbers are all an order of magnitude larger, which predicts, thankfully, a much smaller proportion will be infected.

    (also, presumably those projections have their own predictions about numbers of cases. I'm not sure why you've resorted to multiplying random numbers together)

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