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I think that's a narrow, individualistic and perhaps lawyer's view of conflict of interest, to be honest.
It's almost like the term "conflict of interest" has a meaning which is narrowly defined with legal implications.
I think the argument that odds may have an impact similar to polls is worth thinking about, but I suspect odds are based on polls, and people's decisions in terms of whether or not to vote are more likely to be influenced by polls than odds. But I'll concede there is room for the odds given for a bet impacting some people's actions.
The ethical side is also interesting, but not a conflict of interest issue. #WWKantD.
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It's almost like the term "conflict of interest" has a meaning which is narrowly defined with legal implications.
But I'm sure that's true of lots of terms, like 'act of God' or 'contract' and that doesn't negate them having other meanings.
I think the argument that odds may have an impact similar to polls is worth thinking about, but I suspect odds are based on polls
You (and @Brommers) may be great lawyers, but I feel you would make very poor bookies or traders. Initial odds might be based on polls, but they change based on the bets people place, otherwise the bookie would be rapidly out of pocket. So they fairly directly reflect a subset of actual financial interests; polls are a rather indirect way of predicting how people claim they will vote in the future.
tb
chez_jay
I think that's a narrow, individualistic and perhaps lawyer's view of conflict of interest, to be honest.
Football spectators do have an influence (and there are controls against it, e.g. finals are held on neutral ground). Imagine if the home crowd in the stadium start cheering for the opposition, or if one team learns at half time that odds against them are dramatically falling, indicating no-one's betting on their win.
Political candidates focus their last-minute campaigning efforts on swing constituencies, and that swing could be measured in financial bets as well as polls (presumably there are some controls on bookies selling localised betting data?)
Is the influence absolutely infinitesimal in this election for someone placing a £20 bet in the UK? Of course, but how big does my bet need to be before I'm ethically compromised?