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  • Of course, but like I said, if I bet £1000 on Trump at 4/1 (and no bet the other way) and it came down to the wire - I'd want Trump to win at that point. Am I not compromised?

    No. It will have no effect on the outcome. You might be emotionally conflicted, but that's your problem, not anyone else's.

  • It might do, although I'm far from convinced it would. And if the odds on a Trump win shorten, that may cause lazy Democrats to get out and vote rather than staying at home rather than being complacent about a Biden victory with Trump on long odds.

  • Not in any measurable way though.

    Political candidates focus their last-minute campaigning efforts on swing constituencies, and that swing could be measured in financial bets as well as polls (presumably there are some controls on bookies selling localised betting data?)

    Swing constituencies are already very established and well recognised though, and the causation relating to betting & odds is in the opposite direction than you seem to be implying - odds change because of the perceived probability of either party winning (and by how much money the bookies expect to make / lose), not the other way round.

    [Edit] Maybe there is a case for suggesting that voting itself is influenced by polling data & analysis, which may well include betting odds as a factor. I'll stand by my point that it's unmeasurable in any meaningful way though.

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