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  • I think that's a narrow, individualistic and perhaps lawyer's view of conflict of interest, to be honest.

    Football spectators do have an influence (and there are controls against it, e.g. finals are held on neutral ground). Imagine if the home crowd in the stadium start cheering for the opposition, or if one team learns at half time that odds against them are dramatically falling, indicating no-one's betting on their win.

    Political candidates focus their last-minute campaigning efforts on swing constituencies, and that swing could be measured in financial bets as well as polls (presumably there are some controls on bookies selling localised betting data?)

    Is the influence absolutely infinitesimal in this election for someone placing a £20 bet in the UK? Of course, but how big does my bet need to be before I'm ethically compromised?

  • Of course, but like I said, if I bet £1000 on Trump at 4/1 (and no bet the other way) and it came down to the wire - I'd want Trump to win at that point. Am I not compromised?

    No. It will have no effect on the outcome. You might be emotionally conflicted, but that's your problem, not anyone else's.

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