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I think that's a narrow, individualistic and perhaps lawyer's view of conflict of interest, to be honest.
Football spectators do have an influence (and there are controls against it, e.g. finals are held on neutral ground). Imagine if the home crowd in the stadium start cheering for the opposition, or if one team learns at half time that odds against them are dramatically falling, indicating no-one's betting on their win.
Political candidates focus their last-minute campaigning efforts on swing constituencies, and that swing could be measured in financial bets as well as polls (presumably there are some controls on bookies selling localised betting data?)
Is the influence absolutely infinitesimal in this election for someone placing a £20 bet in the UK? Of course, but how big does my bet need to be before I'm ethically compromised?
chez_jay-
Am I not compromised?
Not if you have no influence on the outcome. Morally you may be conflicted but no conflict of interest.
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Of course, but like I said, if I bet £1000 on Trump at 4/1 (and no bet the other way) and it came down to the wire - I'd want Trump to win at that point. Am I not compromised?
No. It will have no effect on the outcome. You might be emotionally conflicted, but that's your problem, not anyone else's.
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I think that's a narrow, individualistic and perhaps lawyer's view of conflict of interest, to be honest.
It's almost like the term "conflict of interest" has a meaning which is narrowly defined with legal implications.
I think the argument that odds may have an impact similar to polls is worth thinking about, but I suspect odds are based on polls, and people's decisions in terms of whether or not to vote are more likely to be influenced by polls than odds. But I'll concede there is room for the odds given for a bet impacting some people's actions.
The ethical side is also interesting, but not a conflict of interest issue. #WWKantD.
dancing james
Brommers
It's not a conflict of interest as your bets, or desires, have no impact on the election or results. Any interest in the election is as a spectator - same as a football match. Because the outcome of the election is much more important doesn't change this.
I still wouldn't do it, though. Betting is a mug's game.