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It is literally a conflict of interests though.
It's not a conflict of interest as your bets, or desires, have no impact on the election or results. Any interest in the election is as a spectator - same as a football match. Because the outcome of the election is much more important doesn't change this.
I still wouldn't do it, though. Betting is a mug's game.
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But what if I bet £1000 on Trump at 4/1 (and no bet the other way) and it came down to the wire - who would I want to win at that point
Yes, I think you're right here that that amount would be problematic. But I think we'd probably be discussing symptoms of a gambling problem at that point rather than conflicts of interets (which I don't think this is) - i.e. that you'd bet an amount where the outcome mattered sufficient to flex your beliefs.
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I think the counter argument is that you have literally no way of influencing the vote. You wanting him to win more has no effect, and bet or no bet the outcome will be the same. A conflict of interests is defined as 'a situation in which a person is in a position to derive personal benefit from actions or decisions made in their official capacity.'. In this case, none of your actions or decisions can directly and definitely result in personal benefit. The act of placing the bet does not affect the outcome.
I agree that the moral side of it feels a bit iffy, because you would end up 'celebrating' Trump winning. And it does make me a little bit sad to accept that making money off an awful situation is so readily within our reach.
Edit: and obviously nothing new for humanity - Kodak sold film to the Nazis throughout the war, even opening a branch in Switzerland to avoid breaking trade embargoes.
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christianSpaceman
tb
@chez_jay
It is literally a conflict of interests though.
I did mention hedging (e.g. if you had a larger bet the other way - and while I guess you could say you stand to 'lose' if Trump wins, it's not a direct financial loss). Yes, a small bet of £20 is neither here or there. But what if I bet £1000 on Trump at 4/1 (and no bet the other way) and it came down to the wire - who would I want to win at that point?