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I think in some way you have to accept that betting does influence an outcome. To what extent or in which direction is far harder to determine.
I only bet on things where there seems to be an emotional or other bias in the market. It happens a lot with home fighting boxers, a UK fighter in a UK betting market will be better value than a foreign fighter.
Call me over-principled, but betting on an outcome you don't want is a conflict of interest (unless it's a hedge I guess).
Full disclosure: have paid to stay in a Trump hotel.