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Do you mean someone who delivered something to your house or to another house? That sounds unlikely to me, as surely that would be easy to trace, e.g. by asking your neighbours?
Definitely an opportunist, but I wouldn't discount the possibility that it's someone who knows the lie of the land very well. Also, a lot of thefts happen because someone observes that a bike is left in the same place all the time.
Crap. It could still be local (very local) if it was an opportunist who overlooks your garden. It feels similar to Mrak's Karate Monkey theft. Hope you get a lead on it somehow.