• I'm a school governor, and we've just had some guidance come through from the council: if someone has the 'classic symptoms' of Covid (high temp, continuous cough, lack of smell), they should self-isolate for 10 days (and household for 14 days), even if they get a negative test result. Their rationale seems to be that there is a 1 in 5 chance you're still positive even if the test comes back negative. I thought the false negative rate was much lower than that? Or is this one of those counter-intuitive Bayesian result things?

  • Indeed, the guidance ( https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing-and-tracing/what-your-test-result-means/ ) says:-

    "
    Negative test result

    A negative result means the test did not find coronavirus.

    You do not need to self-isolate if your test is negative, as long as:

    If you have diarrhoea or you’re being sick, stay at home until 48 hours after they've stopped.
    "

    And that second link has:-

    "
    What to do when you get your test result

    If you test negative (the test did not find coronavirus):

    • keep self-isolating for the rest of the 14 days from when you were last in contact with the person who has coronavirus – as you could get symptoms after being tested
    • anyone you live with can stop self-isolating if they do not have symptoms
    • anyone in your support bubble can stop self-isolating if they do not have symptoms
      "

    But the justification for doing it because of a supposed 1 in 5 chance of the negative result being wrong is just bollocks.

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