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If you're all running around doing the things you're doing now, and the virus is growing at the rate it is now, this is how exponential growth works.
In the model, you'll have to account for "how many have been affected/who are seriously affected/what's the proportion of people in the population now at risk with 50k cases a day? what does this mean in terms of deaths per day? "
is this solid gold, alarmist bullshit because it sure smells like solid gold alarmist bullshit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084