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Is it that the strength of the Colombians is gradient? I thought their supremacy came at altitude (ie >1900m), although even moreso when it's steep at altitude...
gp700-
Supremacy at altitude, but also generally lighter weight.
W/KG may be similar, but the fueling and energy demands of 6.5w/kg at a weight of 60kg (Bernal), 58/59kg of Quintana of 390w compared to the 66-67kg of some of the others, like Roglic/Pogacar at 430w.At higher altitude, if the columbians can hold a higher percentage of their FTP compared to the heavier GC contenders, say 90% compared to 85%, they can put out 351w, compared to 365w of the less aclimatised heavier riders. 5.85 w/kg compared to 5.53w/kg, which starts to become quite a big difference.
Also lighter riders have to work slightly less hard to accelerate for attacks, so if they can make 3/4 attacks, compared to Roglic's super strong finish, they may be able to generate quite a big gap over a longer/steeper climb.
Acliff
I'd say the Columbians might have an advantage here? Last 2km are consistently steep.
Anyone not on top form to be burnt off on the first ramp.
Of course if the Slovenians are in the group at the top, they'll sprint.
If Roglic goes deep to sprint for the bonus seconds, might be an opportunity for others to counter attack and try and drop him?