EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

The reality is that there is no deal (acceptable by the EU) that will be better than staying in so politically the only option is no deal. This allows you to blame the EU rather than bear it yourself

My dad had a letter published in the Telegraph a few days after the referendum saying exactly this. You, and my Dad, are/were spot on.

I am not a 100% sure that even with that money paid (I read about it before) she would have been released, Iran isn't exactly a democracy and they are holding other dual nationals as well.

And it doesn't make it right if they are holding her just to get their money...I know that is probably not the point you are making that is it OK what they are doing.

Still, it is an obligation to be met, so pay up UK. There are concerns the money goes towards the republican guard which of course isn't popular with the UKs mates, so it is not as easy as it looks, still...you can try to work something out, and now they will probably have to.

Wait, did you not vote Brexit?

You didn't see this risk at all I guess?

I saw the Cons had to implement the deal, which didn't please me, but I didn't expect them to be so irrational about it. But that was before I knew how much power the ERG/right wing press had...

I am not a 100% sure that even with that money paid (I read about it before) she would have been released, Iran isn't exactly a democracy and they are holding other dual nationals as well.

And it doesn't make it right if they are holding her just to get their money...I know that is probably not the point you are making that is it OK what they are doing.

Still, it is an obligation to be met, so pay up UK. There are concerns the money goes towards the republican guard which of course isn't popular with the UKs mates, so it is not as easy as it looks, still...you can try to work something out, and now they will probably have to.

You are correct, i'm not suggesting that Iran's behaviour is justifiable because of this debt.

Friends better versed in international relations than myself have thought this was actually about that money all along. No idea if they are correct or not. It does seem possible. Political prisoners are often used for leverage in pre-existing disputes.

Just to add, this is just another example of why the arms industry is so fucked up.

I mean, when the UK and Germany clubbed together to provide Sadam Hussein with chemical weapons precursors, lab equipment and consultancy expertise to build a weapons programme, the future consequences weren't palatable. Almost as if we should try to avoid selling weapons internationally at all.

And selling arms to Saudi Arabia despite their involvement in Yemen...

...then the Cons indirectly support people who lose their shit over the inevitable refugee stream with their dogwhistling tweets.

There are rules around exporting arms...but if a country is still whitelisted those rules make no difference.

In fairness, I've seen racist kipper angry gammon types that actually aren't all that happy either with how the UK gets on when it comes to selling arms/foreign affairs. They rather see all that money used for "our own people".

Of course, when the lefties points out they 100% agree with them on arms/wars, it turns into a nice social media shitshow cos "you'll probably let in all them criminal refugees..." while the arms lobbyists laugh all the way to the bank.

Yes, this is well documented.

Not sure if anyone foresaw any of the twists and turns the last 4 years has brought TBH. Maybe you can claim you did, but I'd doubt the veracity.

Not sure if anyone foresaw any of the twists and turns the last 4 years has brought TBH.

The EU have always stood firm that they would not compromise on the freedoms and would not provide membership benefits to a non member. That has been an unchanged constant since before the referendum even happened. To do so would weaken the union which they clearly would not choose to do so to benefit the UK.

The twists and turns have been political theater and nothing more.

I certainly read enough accounts in the run up to the referendum and warnings from people directly involved with the EU to know this was the most likely outcome . The pro remain newspapers certainly made a big deal of it. The EU trade advisers made a big deal of it. The various internationl trade lawyers who passed comment predicted this outcome. Do you think these people, the people with the most relavant knowledge and experience, just lucked out in their prediction?

EDIT: The UK has never had a negotiating position. The choice was for the UK government to back down and go for a "Brexit in Name Only" (swiss model) or suck up a hard Brexit. Surely "they need us more than we need them" is the biggest lie told to people who voted leave?

The only twist is when people will find out Boris and Co wanted a "hard brexit" all along so they can put rights and regulations on the bonfire.

The only twist is when people will find out Boris and Co wanted a "hard brexit" all along so they can put rights and regulations on the bonfire.

Its true to say that a lot of people who thought leaving the EU would lead to a reduction in "red tape" didn't realise exactly what the Tories meant by red tape.

I'm not convinced that you can dismiss it all as political theatre. The whole thing is politics, the EU is a political union, made from, and of politics. This posturing is the reality of how things happen.

It doesn't need saying but I will anyway, the UK has been fucking stupid and dogmatic all the way through, their attempts to negotiate the WA and any future FTA have been done by some of the dimmest fuckers we could possibly have allowed to crawl out from under their filthy rocks. This brings us great shame.

the UK has been fucking stupid and dogmatic all the way through

Given that the Brexiters were never anything other than fucking stupid and dogmatic, not to mention liars, charlatans and bigots, how anyone ever expected anything else is beyond me.

I'm not convinced that you can dismiss it all as political theatre. The whole thing is politics, the EU is a political union, made from, and of politics. This posturing is the reality of how things happen.

The reason I regard it as political theatre is that quite often the UK government position has been along the line of "WE DEMAND ACCESS TO THE SINGLE MARKET WITHOUT PAYING CONTRIBUTIONS" knowing that the EU will not entertain this.

Requesting stuff that you know isn't possible and then blaming the other side for saying no is political theater in my book. Requesting access to the single market for reduced contributions and throwing something else into the offer would be a good faith negotiation.

It doesn't need saying but I will anyway, the UK has been fucking stupid and dogmatic all the way through, their attempts to negotiate the WA and any future FTA have been done by some of the dimmest fuckers we could possibly have allowed to crawl out from under their filthy rocks. This brings us great shame.

This we totally agree on. The moment I realised that we were proper fucked was when Theresa May stood up in Lancaster House and promised to deliver a bunch of stuff that had already been ruled out.

I would not have voted for this as I didn't see any possibilities of cherry picking. They made contradictory promises expecting the EU to offer the UK something special.

plus I live in Northern Ireland as a Citizen of Nowhere (couldn't vote, but had I had irish/uk citizenship too would have been at the polls to vote against it) plus the Conservatives would ultimately do Brexit.

After all, who else could? As there was no mechanism afterwards to have citizen forums to hammer out a plan.

There were some FlexCit plans but those relied on the UK being sensible and offering something back. And... cherrypicking.

I did not have foreseen how godawful all this has been, it's getting worse and worse, I don't think anybody could have.

I didn't like May at all, she tried to keep things together with the backstop (a big fudge, to buy time perhaps?) we are all controlled by the ERG now.

My frustration with this whole process is also erm well documented :p

Not sure if anyone foresaw any of the twists and turns the last 4 years has brought TBH.

52% didn’t, that’s for sure.

Because there was no cohesive Brexit. Each person who voted for “Brexit” was voting for whatever they imagined it would be whether it be fishing rights, freedumb, pisspoor chocolate, bendy bananas, warm beer, more money for the nhs, overt racism etc etc There never was a plan, just an opportunity to be voted into power.

The reason I regard it as political theatre is that quite often the UK government position has been along the line of "WE DEMAND ACCESS TO THE SINGLE MARKET WITHOUT PAYING CONTRIBUTIONS" knowing that the EU will not entertain this.

I don't know why this wasn't blindingly obvious to everyone from the very beginning. If the EU don't do a deal with the UK it might be financially damaging for them. If they concede to the UK's demand for full single-market access with no associated costs or responsibilities then it is potentially existentially damaging for them, since they would have just demonstrated that there is no (or massively reduced) point to being in the EU. Whatever you think about the EU, they do seem fairly logical and, as such, would never trade a financial problem for an existential one.

I don't know why this wasn't blindingly obvious to everyone from the very beginning. If the EU don't do a deal with the UK it might be financially damaging for them. If they concede to the UK's demand for full single-market access with no associated costs or responsibilities then it is potentially existentially damaging for them, since they would have just demonstrated that there is no (or massively reduced) point to being in the EU. Whatever you think about the EU, they do seem fairly logical and, as such, would never trade a financial problem for an existential one.

Well summarised. One thing that I noticed was that international news agencies discussed this a lot in 2015 from CNN to Fox and beyond but I only ever saw it being discussed in the FT and Guardian in the UK.

Was none of that brought up in any TV debates?

The tiny issue of the UK border in Ireland wasn't discussed much.

It was only mentioned after the referendum, barely anything before.

£350 millions got all the attention.

... beautiful...

Like people googling "What is the EU" day after the vote.

This strikes me as an interesting and thorough analysis of the implications of the UK legislating to block or change the WA: https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1303018435081908224

Tx :)

In my limited understanding after reading that, it'll rumble on and specialized lawyers will have loads of work...

Meanwhile the depressing Green VS Orange split in NI continues: NONE of the unionist parties have condemned this sabre rattling, it's all "Well we don't like the current WA, so we will ignore the threat to break a signed treaty after all, who cares eh?". Not even the UUP, the DUP is expected to not say anything against the Cons.

Great.

I have to say I don't understand that - is their theory that a return to a hard border (and potentially the troubles) within Ireland will foster Unionist feelings?

I'd think that after 22 years of a de-facto single Ireland (whilst preserving peoples sense of British/Irish, and indeed a blend of the two) people will prefer a truly united Ireland rather than reverting to the bad old days of the 70's-90's.