Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

He's not a father though so how can we trust his judgement on the issue?? He's just part of the metropolitan elite.

That'd be quite the faux pas

I see you, da.

1500 cases today. Up 500 on yesterday.

10 days til my kids are due back in school.

I'm not holding my breath.

Pubs or schools, that’s gonna be the choice.

Pubs closed please.

Switzerland on the list as expected.

Last week went to the pub, a restaurant, a museum and the theatre and went on train, bus and tube.
It all felt extremely odd.

So what happens to @dammit

He's got until 4am Saturday to get out of Dodge and over the border into Germany.

That sound weirdly like Indiana Jones.

Limbo . Bikes and shniz on ebay.zw .

It'll be interesting to segment by age, possibly occupation, where they live.

And then try and do similar for deaths.

I have not been paying attention to these rules lately in uk or elsewhere but I dont get the logic behind it. Why would one need to self isolate when u have been away in places where the infection rates are lower than the place you were traveling from in the first place ? That makes absolutely no sense unless everyone where u travelled from and returned to are also self isolating even tho they have stayed put.

I think all countries requiring quarantine have a higher infection rate per 100k no?

Correct. Albeit in some cases only just.

I think there’s also the possibility of infected people returning from holiday creating new hotspots in random places across the country vs. the existing known hotspots that are localised and being managed.

Or something.

When they publish the infection rate, does it mean that given how long it take to show symptoms, meaning they might have got infected a week ago?

No idea.

The infection rate is calculated per 100,000 people.
The number of people with at least one confirmed test result since the start are divided by the population and then again by 100,000 to give the number per 100,000 people.
This can be calculated everyday as it's using test results.

The R number is produced using admissions and deaths, and this figurenl represents the situation from a few weeks ago.

Doesn't the ONS study (which is essentially random testing of people[1]) contribute to the R number estimates?

1. Because they're repeatedly testing these people regardless of whether they have symptoms or not, and they're drawn from random households around the country.
   

Possibly, the R number is calculated by a number of different modelling groups in different places. And then discussed to get the range this number might be within.

Is a Cummings adjustment part of the UK calculation?

Well. There you go.

This might help explain the funkiness of R.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w

Whats the betting on me arbitrarily testing positive on my asymptomatic swab that I just had to have prior to a biopsy on Tuesday?
Given the general shitness of the year and the fact I'm supposed to be training to race in like 2 weeks time- I'm at least on evens....