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Ok, thanks.
Edit - to be clear, clearly I have no idea either and would not wish to make out that I do.
My Feb 2020 comment was light-hearted.
I have previously posted my views on market timing (I don't believe it can be done reliably or repeatably).
I just thought it would be interesting to have a bit of conversation about these mad times we find ourselves in.
ChasnotRobert-
I’ve always been sceptical of the idea that the financial system inevitably exhibits certain regular patterns. Minsky’s bubble theory seems to rest on that idea. I say seems to because I’ve never read him in the original so I can’t be sure.
Some of the most egregious failures in the recent history of finance have come from smart people assuming some form of regularity must hold and finding they were wrong. LTCM was the first example I studied in depth. I still have ‘Inventing Money’ on my bookshelf somewhere.
Your earlier point about Wirecard is well made. It shakes one’s confidence in one’s ability to know what is really going on. The comments pages on the FT web site are a good source of information about where the next Wirecard might come from, though few people are willing to name names directly.
Sharkstar
It’s probably ok to say you have no idea. I have no idea.