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@Scrabble
I think the data to keep an eye on is hospital admissions as I think it's the least susceptible to other factors influencing trends. It's hard to game the numbers on people showing up at A&E, and Covid is the only thing likely to cause a marked upward trend, if it happens.
With deaths, as our treatments get better, less people will die, but perhaps that means even more people have significant health challenges as part of recovery. The testing numbers are a complete mess to try and interpret.
PHE release a report each Thursday summarising the situation. Its this I'm keeping an eye on for signals its all going wrong. So far, so ok, which I'm surprised about.
I've just got a feeling this means it must be indoor social settings that is where transmission really occurs. Guess we're about to find out.