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A moderately well selected moderate risk s&s isa will do 3% in that timeframe.
There is a small chance it will not, roughly the same chance that your 10 or 20 year investment will tank the month before you divest it.
There’s a bigger chance it will do more than 3%.
Howard-
Ours with Vanguard is 16% over the past three years, which was more like 20+% at points before C19 but even so has paid for a new boiler and helped us through unpaid maternity leave. The money is fairly quick to access (although not instant) and actual emergencies go on a credit card until the transfer comes through.
There was a big C19 dip at some point (right when we needed the boiler) but it bounced back within days so maybe we’ve been lucky with timing.
Dramatic_Hammer
Where long-term is > 10 years, preferably > 25 years
In a pension fund, say, where you also can gross up the contributions and defer income tax to when you are probably going to be paying a much lower rate.