Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I gather that some countries (Hungary being one) are saying that you can avoid quarantine when you enter the country if you have a positive antibody test.

I think it's Bayes fault.

What are the chances of that, eh?

here's where prevalence comes in...

You've nailed where the confusion emerged.

If you change the prevalence amongst the population you're altering the odds for your own infection status

Yeah - that makes perfect sense. And where the confusion emerged. The odds of a result being one thing or another can be dependent on prevalence (or any other number of factors, actually) independent of the test's claimed/stated/tested accuracy. I agree with this, but, as I think is clear now, I initially made the mistaken assumption that you were making a bolder claim than you were. This is my fault.

But maybe we should argue about something else now?

(I'm going for a bike ride).

Well, I'm positive I've enjoyed 95% of this chat. Or maybe only 50%.

Too much maths. Wouldn't read again.

For those that missed the RI Christmas Lectures, Matt Parker's 80% accurate machine is relevant - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBPFaM-0pI8

Maybe we'd have to have the discussion again.

What are the chances of that, eh?

Given previous?

Too much maths. Wouldn't read again.

I didn't read it in the first place. :)

An update on the Belly Mujinga case. A suspect has been interviewed by police:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/17/police-question-suspect-over-london-rail-workers-coronavirus-death

Neither did I, I just saw more stats chit chat as I scrolled rapidly through the last 5 pages of this thread looking for funny pictures. :)

I have a headache now.

Bring it on.
Where did you read this?

I enjoyed all the maths chat.

But I won't be buying an antibody test atm.

Have a mild sniffle so wore a mask to the local supermarket just in case it is corona or a nasty cold. Nobody noticed it, it was as if the mask was invisible. That was...weird. Signs of the new normal.

Soon: LFGSS branded make in the UK masks with caps with a button you can attach them to?

[I don't have the fabric to try it, sounds like a fun project actually]

Soon: LFGSS branded make in the UK masks with caps with a button you can attach them to?

[I don't have the fabric to try it, sounds like a fun project actually]

1 . mashton
2 .

A friend who is Hungarian told me about it.

make in the UK masks

Mamnick?

Nobody noticed it, it was as if the mask was invisible. That was...weird. Signs of the new normal.

Saw some bloke walking out of the back of a shopping centre the other day with a TV under his arm, sunglasses, hoody and a mask on. A few months ago, you'd have thought he might have been up to no good, now you don't bat an eyelid.

To be honest, I'm a bit embarrassed here as everyone seems to get it but me.

I don't get it at all, I literally haven't understood any of the posts in this discussion, but maths isn't my forte.

In related news, the government must think that the Roche and Abbott antibody tests are accurate enough, because they've just ordered 10 million of them:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-offer-antibody-tests-to-health-and-social-care-staff-and-patients-in-england

tl;dr - Did I just waste £69?

Not unless you're NHS or care staff, in a care home or your doctor thinks you need one.

Curious as to people's reasons for buying antibody tests

This thread will tell you all you need to know
https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/344858/

But personally, I was pretty sick back in March for about a month. It took me about another six weeks to get over it. So I kinda want to know if that was Covid-19 or not. If not, I need to worry about what the hell it was. If so, I don't, and (IMO) I don't need to worry too much about having it again*.

*Personally given there's no evidence of reinfection I'm not too worried about that, but even if I did get it again I believe the symptoms would be less severe. I know that there is also no evidence of lasting immunity.

3 hours and no more names? I'm in.

Soon: LFGSS branded make in the UK masks with caps with a button you can attach them to?

[I don't have the fabric to try it, sounds like a fun project actually]

1 . mashton
2 . rhb
3 .

'I went to COVID-19 and all I got were some lousy antibodies.'

Let us know your result, would be interesting.