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To be honest, I'm a bit embarrassed here as everyone seems to get it but me.
I don't get it at all, I literally haven't understood any of the posts in this discussion, but maths isn't my forte.
In related news, the government must think that the Roche and Abbott antibody tests are accurate enough, because they've just ordered 10 million of them:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-offer-antibody-tests-to-health-and-social-care-staff-and-patients-in-england
Fox
To be honest, I'm a bit embarrassed here as everyone seems to get it but me. I understand how this stuff works (when it comes to the type of the stats I do). I've published papers that rely on robust precision and recall testing. I've spent lots of time worrying about false/true positives/negatives in my datasets and analyses. I just don't quite get what it is you're trying to convince me of if it's not what I've already laid out (or if it's just that the results will not be a perfect match for reality, then we never disagreed).