• I can't believe the UK is thinking about lowering restrictions with ~3,500 new cases per day... It's madness...

    Possibly yes, but contrary to my pessimistic predictions the numbers do look like they are falling quite considerably.

    It may well be regional in that London has been hit quite hard and the tail end of the wave is hitting more Northern cities/areas.

    If the second wave is far less than expected (and I've been predicting a second wave bigger than the first) then that will be a big fucking relief, although there is little to explain it if the estimates of only 5%-10% of the population have had it (based on random antibody testing) are true as it doesn't explain why it isn't ripping through the remaining population.

  • although there is little to explain it if the estimates of only 5%-10%

    Actual tests show that London was 10% about three weeks ago now, which was covering people who would have been positive three weeks before that. Not sure 5-10% is a reasonable estimate.

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