Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

supposedly only a month away from herd immunity

What is the source for this? Sounds promising

Sounds dubious given they reckon 25% of the New York population has contracted the virus. They would need another massive wave to get anywhere near herd immunity and that’s one of the worst affected areas.

So the Government estimate is that 10% of London and 4% of the UK overall have had Covid.

So c.50k dead /4 = 12.5k deaths per one percent of the population infected so far.

Granted that the most vulnerable will be dying in greater numbers, but if you scale that up to 100% of the population getting it you're actually not far off the reasonable 'worst case' death toll of 1.3 million deaths that the Government were given in February.

Would that indicate that it's not been managed well in these early stages?

I can update when they present some new data, i believe this was due out this week.

Its based on antibodytesting and modelling from that ofcourse. I think it also takes into account that the r is now lower than previously with current distancing methods so they (if i recall correctly) think "herd immunity" will be reached at a lower procentage of the population than previously reported. I believe the number i last heard was 40%

So from what i have gathered they believe that more than 40% of stockholms citizens will have been affected by the virus sooner than a month from now. If thats holds true or not i have no idea but they seem to have been way more accurate about swedens projections than the models one can find online in various models.

They = the swedish health authorities if that wasent clear .)

Friend who lives in Sweden (Stockholm) has said that it is a lot quieter there. Lots of people choosing to stay at home more, but bars and the like are still open (just a bit quieter).

He said that looking at the pictures he's seen it looks quieter on the streets in Stockholm (no official lockdown) than it did in London (where there was supposed to be a lockdown).

Sure

But if i type in population density into google i get london 4500 ish stockholm 4800 ish.
So stockholm even if its not london or nyc in terms of population numbers is still pretty dense and according to google more so than london but perhaps thats taking into account suburbs further away and what not.

Its weird we dont have it worse than we do, i cant really see a very good reason for it.

Yes its quieter than normal here but more n more the city is started to look like it did 2 months ago during the days. Night time is still calm as night life and dining out is basicly not done (by choice).

I lived in Stockholm for a brief period 17 years ago.

Something I found very unsettling were how few older people there were around.
I grew up in south London so the idea of public transport being generationally diverse was ingrained in me.

This was just not the case in Stockholm.

My then girlfriend explained that many, many people would leave the city as soon as they retired.

I think this goes a long way to explaining some of the variations we see in the Swedish figures.

A large proportion of the most vulnerable to the disease aren't living in the areas with the highest population density.

I would also imagine the average health level in sweden is higher than the UK so those that do get it have more chance of not being affected as badly.

Just musing out loud.

London's large BAME communities may also be a factor.

Average age of stockholm is 38.5 and london is 40.5 so there is at least a little difference there.

Yes we are likely healthier but im not sure its that easy. I know nothing of Belgium really but arent they of quite good health to?

I know nothing of Belgium really but arent they of quite good health to?

Beer and frites? Not necessarily.

The history of the governance of London is based upon the right wing adding greener suburbs to the dense inner city areas, to try and overcome the natural propensity for toilers to vote for Socialism.
Out here in outer north west London we have 725 acres of Oak & Hornbeam woodland,
within the Greater London area. That reduces the London population density.
The M25, the motorway that goes around London, and a little bit of adjoining local government areas is 117 miles/188kms long.

Ordered to eat frites twice a week to work through the potato glut as well now.

Yes, just to backtrack; my point was that if the UK had no 'lockdown' (by extension I meant not done anything) there would have been much larger community spread over this period.

Yes i was not trying to say you were wrong or that it is not so just that perhaps a severe "lockdown" is not always the only working option.

I'm with you now :)

'an evolutionary view suggests that the virus is likely to change quickly, with less virulent forms becoming dominant', which is pure piffle.

Some of that article is tosh, but that did happen with HIV though didn't it? Viruses that produce clear symptoms really rapidly (like SARS or MERS) are easy to spot and therefore isolate. Evolutionary pressure can select for strains of the virus that aren't so aggressive.

That's interesting how close the average ages of the two cities are.

My post was just thinking out loud really.

I'm well aware you could live in parts of London and not see "old" people.

case in point - The average age of the street I grew up on is definitely younger now than when my parents moved there 40 years ago.

No pedantics, I changed one word!

Whether it affects young or old, whatever category, lockdown reduces the amount of people dying and helps our healthcare system be as on top of this as possible

Agreed. A few months ago, a group of us up in Leeds formed to try & reject the proposed Leeds Bradford Airport expansion (Group for Action on LBA) with a planned more than doubling of flights.

Planning application is expected to go in soon & the business case is pretty much demolished already.

I'm directly under the flight path too & am absolutely loving having the window open at night without all the noise.

Where I am, literally the only thing on FlightRadar over the whole country is a couple of vehicles at the airport; not a single plane in the sky at all. The airport closed so all we get is a bit of cargo and private flights. Should reopen in a week or so though.

Absolute savaging from the independent scientific advisory group, apparently the plan hasn’t been signed off by the chief medical or scientific officers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1259934762501898240

He also seemingly told the air industry to fuck off

So he's not all bad then

Seen this?

https://twitter.com/BALPApilots/status/1259157622562918403

Fucking hell.