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The late Ferguson of Imperial College has a track record of pandemic erroneous predictions.. He would not have lasted long handicapping horses or pricing derivatives.
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Sweden as a society has taken no measures in the last few months? Not any personal social distancing or anything?
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Have they been terribly wrong?
Was 18k not the possible worst case?
Swedes voluntarily social distanced, somewhere between lockdown and ‘business as usual’ and Stockholm has New York percentages or infected.
In the UK Imperial College predicted 20 - 60k deaths. We are sadly well on track.
hurricane_run
Squaredisk
miro_o
@badboybjorn
Thats what they said about sweden as well. We were suppose to have 18k death by now or similar and we should be lacking some 5000 icu beds..
Yet here we are. Those models have been terribly wrong all along the way even when they have corrected for new data etc. They are just plain bad, at least in terms of predicting the swedish outcome.