How good are behavioural science models / approaches at predicting human behaviour at a societal level under unprecedented conditions?
Well the fact that a specific situation is unprecedented doesn't mean that we can't draw on some previous findings, because there are similarities to some aspects of other human experiences. For example (and bearing in mind this isn't an area of expertise for me) we know about adherence to medical regimes, we know about panic buying in times of shortage etc. Predicting things at a societal level actually evens out individual differences, which can be useful. Essentially the fact that there are unknowns doesn't meant that we know nothing.
There are uncertainties in epdimiology, particularly in relation to a new virus, but placing greater emphasis on the behavioural science than the epidemiology seems to have been fairly dumb in retrospect (some of us were even saying so at the time).
This seems like a strange distinction. Epidemiology relies on knowing about human behaviour. The whole exercise in manipulated R0 is done through the attempt to change people's behaviour.
An error which is even worse if the behavioural scientists weren't actually staying that, but it was just a sort of instinct that Chris Whitty had.
I haven't read the articles so I'd have to just refer to other's comments on whether the behavioural scientists are objecting the the use of a particular term (fair enough) or the general principle of adherence slipping over time (which seems obvious).
Well the fact that a specific situation is unprecedented doesn't mean that we can't draw on some previous findings, because there are similarities to some aspects of other human experiences. For example (and bearing in mind this isn't an area of expertise for me) we know about adherence to medical regimes, we know about panic buying in times of shortage etc. Predicting things at a societal level actually evens out individual differences, which can be useful. Essentially the fact that there are unknowns doesn't meant that we know nothing.
This seems like a strange distinction. Epidemiology relies on knowing about human behaviour. The whole exercise in manipulated R0 is done through the attempt to change people's behaviour.
I haven't read the articles so I'd have to just refer to other's comments on whether the behavioural scientists are objecting the the use of a particular term (fair enough) or the general principle of adherence slipping over time (which seems obvious).