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I think these are fair points.
The time for criticism on many issues is now - for example: the Tories ineptitude when it comes to describing and implementing their own policies, or the state the NHS was in when this hit, or the potential for political decisions informing scientific proposals, or... But trying to make retroactive predictions or provide historical counterfactuals based on imperfect data and diverse cases is a waste of time. But there will be plenty of opportunities to do so in the future.
Imho.
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There's imperfect data then there's their own scientists' predictions. They were told on 21 Feb that 1.3 million deaths was a reasonable worst-case forecast. Where they're most sharply criticised is in their politicisation of science and trying to float her immunity as a solution, and I think that's very valid.
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I agree to the extent that past experience tells us that rapid, imperfect action is often better than slow-but-perfect action in these instances, but it's really important to remember that (i) for all our talk of the blitz spirit we are a fairly liberal-inclined country that value our freedom and therefore police enforcement would only work to the degree that we consent to it, and (ii) even for those of us that are more likely to fall in line with government guidelines (myself included) "lockdown fatigue" is a real thing. Alongside epidemiological advice, one of the things that the government was told was "don't implement lockdown too early, because people will only comply for so long". What we're seeing right now is exactly that; the government guidelines are lagging slightly behind what people are already doing.