Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

The all powerful R number in Germany is up to 1.1 a week after a lifting of restrictions.

Thus illustrating the problem of testing. We would be in blissful ignorance.

I for one am convinced by this.

I've written and deleted this a few times, its still not as coherent as I would like it to be.

Anecdotally/ experientially:

This last set of night shifts felt very much like the first set just as all the Covid stuff was starting. An increasing number of C19 patients coming in, with more each shift.

This time there is the added bonus of seeing our 'normal' patients - who have been avoiding the hospital, and thus coming in with late presentations, in a worse way.

If this pattern is being replicated elsewhere- we are beginning/already have begun the second wave. With added 'normal' patient load. The staff are also all completely shattered.

I don't hold much hope for the next month.

Interesting, tx :)

Looks I'm not overly paranoid blaming colds every winter on our airco no windows open office...

They will provide us with free masks though once offices are allowed to reopen.

Is there anything that can be done to help if you already work full time like I do?

Sending free snacks etc to staff?
Offer free small bike repairs for NHS/care home/all other workers?

oh dear

First time I've understood this meme without thinking it's stupid and the creator is stupid and the person positing it is stupid.

The all powerful R number in Germany is up to 1.1 a week after a lifting of restrictions.

I don't think it's been a week, has it? A few days I think?

I wouldn't pin a rise on changes to the lockdown (yet). I think it would largely be too early to see the impact statistically. Or, the impact will be much worse in the coming week and a half as people showing early symptoms (and therefore getting tested) will be the outliers of a much larger increase in cases.

;)

Interesting piece, big take away for me is don't rush back to the office
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Is there anything that can be done to help if you already work full time like I do?

Sending free snacks etc to staff?
Offer free small bike repairs for NHS/care home/all other workers?

I have two NHS nurses collecting free bikes this week, I have been getting the word out through freinds of freinds on facebook that I restore disused / vandalised bikes and do free servicing and it seems to be somethings there is demand for.

I started with this thread which went a bit quiet https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/345463/?offset=50#comment15259391

I have also contacted appeal@imperialcharity.org.uk who are centralising charitable donations to the NHS and got this reply:

Thanks William, we’ve shared this with some colleagues at the Trust to see if they need this support. So kind of you to get in touch, we’ll follow up when we hear back from them.

So that might be worth trying.

Super tx, I'll offer help on the local area group as there's demand then.

I've a spare bicycle too I can fix up and lend too, but are there legal liabilities there? In case someone uses it and there was a problem?

I've a spare bicycle too I can fix up and lend too, but are there legal liabilities there? In case someone uses it and there was a problem?

I hadn't thought of that. I guess I'm trusting my own experience, and test riding properly any bike I donate. I also tell people to bring bikes back if there are any issues.

...I suppose this is why it would be good to have a centralised bike donation scheme so everything can be checked to a consistent standard. The Bike Project have started something for NHS Scotland, but I havent found a similar scheme down here yet.

This is apparently (part of?) what was redacted from the sage report earlier in the week (it's scientific advice against tightening of certain lockdown restrictions):

The framework proposes four new suggestions for increasing adherence,
numbered as options 17 to 20 that SPI-B have not commented on before.
These focus on: 17) increasing the financial penalties imposed; 18)
introducing self-validation for movements; 19) reducing exercise
and/or shopping; 20) reducing non-home working. We have reservations
about options 17 to 19.

First, we are unclear what the evidence base is that the targeted
behaviours are a substantial contribution to disease transmission,
particularly given the high adherence rates currently observed in the
community. Is there evidence, for example, that exercise conducted
more than 1km away from the house leads to higher rates of
transmission than exercise conducted within 1km of the house? Indeed,
for this option, there is a risk that reducing the ability of people
to apply some flexibility in choosing where to exercise will increase
risk by preventing people from spreading out in nearby open space.
Tightening restrictions without clear epidemiological need may lose
support among people who have been attempting to adhere.

Second, the implicit assumption underlying options 17 to 19 is that
people lack motivation to adhere to current guidance. This may apply
to some specific subgroups (the example of young men has been given),
but broadly the current levels of adherence we are witnessing suggest
this is not the issue.

Third, there are equity issues within options 17 to 19. Any flat rate
financial penalty will have a higher impact on poorer households,
while the assumption that printing and completing paperwork is
straightforward for all households can also be challenged. The
assumption underlying restrictions on shopping frequency is that
people can afford to buy in larger quantities. The risk of tension
arising as the police are required to start penalising those who are
not adhering should also be factored into considerations.

Who wants to bet that they're going to announce 17 to 19 after Johnson's speech tonight?

What do you mean? Who will?

Whichever of Cummings flying monkeys is responsible for updating the lockdown guidance.

Are you saying you think someone is going to announce a tightening of restrictions tonight? I'd be pretty surprised.

Edit ah, I'm slow. The advice was redacted because it's going to be ignored. I getchya. I don't think so, but with this government nothing's impossible

I have worked on my own bikes, did not die, would do proper checks but don't want to risk any legal hassle.

I'll have a look maybe it's ok.

Don't think there is anything central ATM but I can ask around. Who knows...maybe it'll start something.

There is a bike / baking non profit nearby they may be able to help answer my questions, they are no doubt flat out themselves.

👀

Isn't it more than no reservations were mentioned for point 20?

Eh?