Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

If we relaxed our rules further than what they currently are there's a good chance the numbers would start going up instead of being steady / very slowly down.

Yes, the numbers probably will increase, but IMO an increase in and of itself wouldn't necessarily prove there has been a policy failure. The critical matters is for the number of severe cases to not increase beyond hospital capacity to care for them.
That being said, I appreciate that no one has the any very precise tools to manage that number, so there is always the risk of the infection starting to run amok to the point where almost any policy is bound to fail.

Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases, wether or not that means the R0 would be above 1 or not is hard to predict but one has to tinker a bit i guess.

However the scientists that i have heard believes that the countries who will have the biggest peaks of 2nd waves are those who have had the more severe and successful lockdowns.

People are still getting herd immunity twisted.

Forget about it as a policy or justification of a ‘strategy’.

It’s concept at play right now in Stockholm and New York. It will also be at play in other communities really badly hit (navel vessels etc).

A week ago the WHO estimated 3% of the world’s population had been infected. For herd immunity to solve the edidemic ~ 60% need to be infected so that isn’t happening. However the if (for instance) 25% of a community population have immunity then yes, that will reduce transmission.

Coincidentallyy USA/UK death rate is through the roof compared to other countries

You’re not talking about case fatality rates here are you? Deaths after intubation or something?

Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases

Cases hinge on just testing (here in the UK anyway). Obviously it’s hypothetical (because it assumes perfect testing) but surely lockdown should be eased when there is a sustained decrease in cases?

As that’s highly unlikely, lockdown should be eased once we have a sustained decrease in day on day deaths. And a steep enough decrease so easing effects won’t reverse that trend?

This chat about the CV app seems to be a massive red herring.

Fewer than fifty percent of the population have a smartphone. So even with 100% uptake (!) we wouldn't have sufficient coverage to make it reduce R0 .

Or so I am hearing from a highly placed source within government.

What does your source say about cycling?

Well in this post i ofc meant real as in actual cases. Yes number of cases tested possitive seem to be a rather meaningless number for comparisons sake, at least for any other statistics than to compare it with previous testing for that same nation in the same circumstances.

We're in Week 6 of the UK (partial) Shutdown,
and
the upper limit of R0 is 0.9.
The bulk figure of daily mortalities for Eng & wales may be slightly declining,
(using the rolling 7-day average beloved by those providing graphs),
but,
we have local hot spots disguised by London seemingly being at least a few days
ahead of other regions/ NHS regions within E&W.
If betwen 500 & 1000 deaths per day are an acceptable level of mortality,
reduce the restrictions.

We're in Week 6 of the UK (partial) Shutdown, and the upper limit of R0 is 0.9. The bulk figure of daily mortalities for Eng & wales may be slightly declining, (using the rolling 7-day average beloved by those providing graphs), but, we have local hot spots disguised by London seemingly being at least a few days ahead of other regions/ NHS regions within E&W. If betwen 500 & 1000 deaths per day are an acceptable level of mortality, reduce the restrictions.

You're going to have to do the work for me. Why does that mean:

As the Uk has never had a Lockdown as severe as Italy, Spain or France, any lessening of restrictions seems to lead directly to a second peak.

Unless you meant easing of restrictions in Italy/Spain/France?

If you simply mean now is not the time to ease restrictions, I think the confusion is bringing the other countries in to it. Having had fewer cases, which presumably a stricter lockdown would have resulted in, is unlikely to prevent a second peak.

We done claimed leaked lockdown lifting guidelines?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/governments-draft-plan-to-ease-lockdown-workpace-in-full

https://twitter.com/stevesilberman/status/1257018873431220224

5/6 weeks in England & Wales have a higher daily death tally than any other European country.
We might have an R0 just below unity.
It seems too soon to me to be relaxing our restrictions, as we have not and currently cannot carry out enough testing to validate the hope R0 is declining towards zero.

Smartphone penetration rate in the UK is around 70%.

Yep! That's something I suppose...

...and even then, the care homes are still last in the queue.

I love how people havent realised this...

The hospitals have capacity so people will get sick. Those that think they're safe, are going to be hit the worst.

Smartphone penetration rate in the UK is around 70%.

Does that include children?

Baby ankle tags. Simple.

What does your source say about cycling?

Bunch of nonces I heard

Is it me or has the UK media stopped reporting the total deaths here? Looks like we're about to pass Italy for total deaths (according to woldometers, reliable?)

No, it's not just you. Yesterday the BBC were leading with the Sun story on what a brave boy Boris was, needing litres of oxygen and how a plan had to be made in case he died. Meanwhile, Reuters were leading with the fact the UK is shadowing Italy for total deaths behind the U.S., as you point out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52517996

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-death-toll/uk-shadows-italy-as-worst-hit-in-europe-virus-death-toll-passes-28000-idUKKBN22E0LD

Jumping the gun somewhat, are infection and death rates falling?

And the short answer to this is nope
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-eu-britain/uk-among-european-states-not-yet-on-covid-19-downward-slope-eu-says-idUKKBN22G14S

The head of the European Union agency for disease control said on Monday Britain was one of five European countries yet to begin a downward trend in its coronavirus outbreak, contradicting the British government’s line.

Of course you won't read anything contradicting the British government line on the BBC at the moment, it's being spectacularly supine, even for Auntie.

The worst kinds

A high percentage of secondary school children have smartphones. They are the ones who’s movements are more likely to need tracking. Primary school kids are very unlikely to be out unsupervised, as their movements are more predictable.

People aged over 65. it is in the email.

On the basis that something like 50% of Tory members are aged over 65, that probably means 65k as well.

.

Well in this post i ofc meant real as in actual cases.

Ok, cheers for the clarity.

Who has a measure of actual cases?