Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

You are reading a single comment by @mespilus and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.

•

in reply to @mespilus

We're in Week 6 of the UK (partial) Shutdown, and the upper limit of R0 is 0.9. The bulk figure of daily mortalities for Eng & wales may be slightly declining, (using the rolling 7-day average beloved by those providing graphs), but, we have local hot spots disguised by London seemingly being at least a few days ahead of other regions/ NHS regions within E&W. If betwen 500 & 1000 deaths per day are an acceptable level of mortality, reduce the restrictions.

You're going to have to do the work for me. Why does that mean:

As the Uk has never had a Lockdown as severe as Italy, Spain or France, any lessening of restrictions seems to lead directly to a second peak.

Unless you meant easing of restrictions in Italy/Spain/France?

If you simply mean now is not the time to ease restrictions, I think the confusion is bringing the other countries in to it. Having had fewer cases, which presumably a stricter lockdown would have resulted in, is unlikely to prevent a second peak.

•

mespilus in reply to @

5/6 weeks in England & Wales have a higher daily death tally than any other European country.
We might have an R0 just below unity.
It seems too soon to me to be relaxing our restrictions, as we have not and currently cannot carry out enough testing to validate the hope R0 is declining towards zero.

About

@mespilus started