• Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases, wether or not that means the R0 would be above 1 or not is hard to predict but one has to tinker a bit i guess.

    However the scientists that i have heard believes that the countries who will have the biggest peaks of 2nd waves are those who have had the more severe and successful lockdowns.

  • Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases

    Cases hinge on just testing (here in the UK anyway). Obviously it’s hypothetical (because it assumes perfect testing) but surely lockdown should be eased when there is a sustained decrease in cases?

    As that’s highly unlikely, lockdown should be eased once we have a sustained decrease in day on day deaths. And a steep enough decrease so easing effects won’t reverse that trend?

  • Well in this post i ofc meant real as in actual cases. Yes number of cases tested possitive seem to be a rather meaningless number for comparisons sake, at least for any other statistics than to compare it with previous testing for that same nation in the same circumstances.

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