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Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases, wether or not that means the R0 would be above 1 or not is hard to predict but one has to tinker a bit i guess.
However the scientists that i have heard believes that the countries who will have the biggest peaks of 2nd waves are those who have had the more severe and successful lockdowns.
badboybjorn-
Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases
Cases hinge on just testing (here in the UK anyway). Obviously it’s hypothetical (because it assumes perfect testing) but surely lockdown should be eased when there is a sustained decrease in cases?
As that’s highly unlikely, lockdown should be eased once we have a sustained decrease in day on day deaths. And a steep enough decrease so easing effects won’t reverse that trend?
miro_o
The new relaxed rules in Spain and Italy look a lot like our "full lockdown" rules.
If we relaxed our rules further than what they currently are there's a good chance the numbers would start going up instead of being steady / very slowly down.