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The new relaxed rules in Spain and Italy look a lot like our "full lockdown" rules.
If we relaxed our rules further than what they currently are there's a good chance the numbers would start going up instead of being steady / very slowly down.
grams-
If we relaxed our rules further than what they currently are there's a good chance the numbers would start going up instead of being steady / very slowly down.
Yes, the numbers probably will increase, but IMO an increase in and of itself wouldn't necessarily prove there has been a policy failure. The critical matters is for the number of severe cases to not increase beyond hospital capacity to care for them.
That being said, I appreciate that no one has the any very precise tools to manage that number, so there is always the risk of the infection starting to run amok to the point where almost any policy is bound to fail. -
Well you cant relax methods of containment and not expect a higher increase in cases, wether or not that means the R0 would be above 1 or not is hard to predict but one has to tinker a bit i guess.
However the scientists that i have heard believes that the countries who will have the biggest peaks of 2nd waves are those who have had the more severe and successful lockdowns.
starfish&coffee
badboybjorn
I would have thought the more severe the shutdown the bigger the risk of a 2nd peak. Not the otherway around at least.
I guess the idea here beeing is that the less ppl have had previously the bigger potential growth the virus will have once the lockdown is lifted since more ppl without "immunity" will now come in contact with the virus.