-
'Herd immunity' without a vaccine is just 'let the vulnerable die' and the fact that we don't even know what percentage of the population have had it means you've no way of quantifying how far along that route we are.
The problem is that "lockdown until there's a vaccine or other solution" will end up killing way more than the scenario above.
Greenbank-
But, will it necessarily or is that partly a political choice?
If I break it down: Some people will die because they cannot get healthcare in the lockdown, and that isn't really something you can completely avoid as you don't want to drag the virus in a healthcare setting.
Some of it will be partially avoidable with community efforts/investments, but not completely.
Then there are the political choices: As it turns out there IS money to bail actual people out. Now, I am not going to say there won't be any problems. If there are huge budget cuts/far less tax takings that also has knock-on effects, but dunno, maybe the banks can bail US out for a change? ;)
Now in developing economies it really is a problem as most don't have the resources to partially keep wages, it is much harder to bring aid etc.
I'd be interested to see some articles etc, no doubt you have those though.
JWestland
https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/herd-immunity-is-a-fatal-strategy-we-should-avoid-at-all-costs
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/
There's been lots on this since BoJo and chums first tried to float this idea and got pilloried for it, in this thread and all over the news. 'Herd immunity' without a vaccine is just 'let the vulnerable die' and the fact that we don't even know what percentage of the population have had it means you've no way of quantifying how far along that route we are.
Really CBA going over it again.