Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

Sorry to return to this but the flu/covid comparisons really annoy me.

With regards to the claim that 2018 had 50,000 excess deaths due to the flu vaccine being ineffective - this is not an accurate picture.

The flu report for that season estimates the number of deaths attributable to flu at 15,000 (page 47):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/740606/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2017_to_2018.pdf

Covid has already killed 40,000 people in the UK in 10 weeks. This is in addition be deaths due to flu from the 2019/20 season, and other excess deaths from heart disease/respiratory disease exacerbated by cold weather (disproportionately affecting the worst off who are more likely to live with fuel poverty and have less access to preventative medicine).

Even leaving aside the issue of excess mortality and C19 - the strain it places on NHS resources puts it in a totally different league to seasonal flu.

The latest ICNARC report shows that there were 5,782 admissions to ITU with confirmed viral pneumonia between 2017-2019. There have been 8,250 admissions to ITU with COVID in the last 10 weeks. Regardless of how many excess deaths it is causing, COVID is creating massive amounts of work for already stretched critical care departments.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b8c18e7d-e791-ea11-9125-00505601089b

The impact this will have on the way the NHS functions over the next 6 (and possibly 12+) months is staggering and facile flu/covid mortality comparisons completely miss this larger point.