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Tenderloin-
So I fixed this eventually. New gasket didn't make a difference so I tried descaling again (only descaled a couple months ago but figured it was worth a try). Backflushed with descaler solution then cafiza and it works fine again. I figure there was a flake of scale that found its way into the solenoid or something but I'm not sure. It works as it should again without having to dismantle it further so I'm happy.
Colonel_of_Truth
Anyone had this happen and have an idea of the cause? When I start pulling a shot i'll get liquid through the spout then it'll slow down to a dribble as if I ground too fine. Coarsening up the grind helps a bit but you can see from the pic I'm already getting too coarse for espresso and getting weak extraction. When I take the portafilter out it looks like the puck has tried to climb out of the sides... in the pic it's a ~15g dose in a silvia basket and it's reached the top of the basket when it should be about halfway down.
My hunch is that it's the gasket not giving a perfect seal. When I backflushed a week ago I had some leak from there until I cranked the portafilter in really tight. I only replaced it 3 months ago so maybe it's a dud one. I also pulled the solenoid valve apart but it was surprisingly clean for such an old machine.