• Ah thanks, that article actually solves my confusion above - though the chart in the other article says 'updated April 26th', the actual numbers in there are apparently for April 10th and so the actual 'excess death' numbers will be much higher now:

    But because of the lag in collating the data, the ONS published figures for the period to April 10 are significantly out of date as they are based on registrations received by the statistical office, which on average arrive four days after the actual date of death.

    The FT’s analysis has extrapolated these figures using the latest trends in the daily hospital deaths assuming the relationship between these and total excess deaths remained stable, as it has so far over the course of the pandemic.

    Using this calculation, a conservative estimate of UK excess deaths by April 21 was 41,102.

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